A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
